As Steve Jobs once said, “You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward.”

In this blog, we are looking back at Q4 2025 through the patterns we observed across the retail accounts we manage. While broader industry trend reporting for this period is still catching up, the shifts across these accounts were strong enough to reveal a clear change in shopper behaviour. Each phase of the season brought a different kind of shopper intent, and the strongest results came when the media strategy adapted to those shifts. One of the clearest examples came from an apparel e-commerce retailer, but similar patterns appeared across other retail accounts as well.

What follows is a breakdown of the dominant shopper persona in each phase and the strategy that aligned with it.

Phase 1: Pre Black Friday/Cyber Monday: Early Demand Starts With the High-Intent Planner

The first phase began well before Black Friday and Cyber Monday officially arrived. Across accounts, we saw early signs of a more decisive shopper, one best represented by the Brand Loyalist and the High-Intent Planner. These are the shoppers who were less focused on waiting for the deepest discount and more focused on securing the right product, brand, or size before the holiday rush narrowed their options.

Over the years, we’ve seen a consistent pattern: brands that move early to capture share of wallet ahead of Black Friday tend to be strongly rewarded. Our strategy was to reach those high-intent shoppers and increase visibility with or without pre-BFCM promotion. We ran brand ads with no promotion for one of our clients, an apparel e-commerce retailer. It drove 29% increase in revenue from the previous year and the conversion rate improved by 32%. For another retailer client, we ran a pre-BFCM promotion and saw incremental gains in revenue. 

That kind of lift suggests a more decisive shopper was already in the market, one less focused on waiting for the lowest price and more focused on securing the right product, size, or brand before the holiday rush narrowed those options.

What mattered in this phase was not broad volume for the sake of visibility. It was qualified visibility. Across both accounts, spend was focused around stronger buying signals, while upper-funnel audience targeting and sustained branding efforts helped expand reach and keep the brands in front of relevant shoppers before the peak rush. In one case, that meant reaching net new audiences based on high-value shopping behaviour. In another, it showed up through stronger branded search interest heading into the season. Across both, the lesson was the same: early demand is real, and the brands that stay visible before the rush are often the ones that enter BFCM with stronger momentum already in place.

Phase 2: Black Friday and Cyber Monday: Where the Discount Shopper Moved Fast

Once Black Friday and Cyber Monday began, the shopper’s mindset changed quickly. This was the phase where the Deal Hunter and the Discount Shopper became most visible. These were shoppers who had likely already done their research, built their lists, and were waiting for the right price to make a move. At this stage, persuasion mattered less than visibility, value, and speed. The brands that performed best were the ones that made it easy for shoppers to compare, decide, and act without friction.

In the apparel e-commerce example, that shift showed up clearly in the day-by-day results. Revenue surged by 35% on Friday as shoppers moved quickly on the first wave of offers, eased on Saturday, then climbed again by 34% on Sunday and 32% on Monday as urgency returned near the end of the promotional window. That pattern reflected a familiar BFCM behaviour: shoppers act fast when deals first launch, pause as they continue comparing, and then return with renewed urgency before the sale ends.

A similar pattern appeared in another retail account, where BFCM performance was strongest when product-led placements and top-performing campaign types were given more room to scale. Shopping visibility became especially important in that window, as shoppers were making faster, more price-aware decisions and responding to formats that made product, brand, and offer details easy to compare at a glance. In both accounts, the same pattern showed up. Once shoppers entered conversion mode, the brands that performed best were the ones that stayed highly visible in the moments where purchase decisions were actually happening.

What mattered most in this phase was not just being in the market, but it was being more flexible and responsive. In one account, that meant shifting support quickly toward the campaign format showing the strongest conversion response. In the other, it meant keeping the budget fluid enough to reallocate toward the channels and placements driving the strongest return. Across both, the lesson was the same: BFCM rewards speed, product visibility, and the ability to adjust quickly when shopper intent peaks.

Phase 3: Christmas Promo: When the Deadline-Driven Gifter Took the Lead

After the BFCM rush, the audience persona that became most visible was Deadline-Driven Gifter. They are less focused on chasing the deepest discount and more focused on making sure the right purchase arrives in time. As Christmas got closer, urgency shifted from price to timing and convenience, and delivery confidence and timely visibility started to matter more than price alone.

One of the strongest examples came from an apparel e-commerce retailer, where revenue increased by 13% year over year and conversion rate rose by 17% during the Christmas promotional window. The lift was strongest earlier in the promotion, while shoppers were still within a comfortable shipping window. Ads also supported strong store-visit activity, reinforcing that this was a period where shoppers were moving between online research and physical stores as they worked toward a deadline.

The strategy worked best when it leaned in before deadline pressure turned into hesitation. Across accounts, stronger performance came when budget and visibility were weighted earlier in the Christmas window, while shoppers still had both the time and confidence to complete the purchase. Messaging and placements that reduced friction, rather than simply pushing harder on discounts, were better aligned with what these shoppers needed in that moment. By this stage of the season, convenience, timing, and purchase confidence were doing more of the work than price alone.

Phase 4: Boxing Week: When the Post-Holiday Opportunist Showed Up

Boxing Week brought a different kind of shopper into view. Across accounts, this was less about holiday gifting and more about post-holiday value seeking. The Post-Holiday Opportunist was the clearest lens for this phase: a shopper arriving with holiday cash, gift cards, or simply the expectation of a bigger event-style deal after Christmas.

One of the clearest examples came from the apparel e-commerce retailer, where shopper behaviour showed that they were expecting a broader sense of value than the offer provided. By this stage of the season, buyers were not just responding to discounts in general. They were looking for the feel of a true Boxing Week event, something that felt wide enough, visible enough, and compelling enough to justify another shopping moment immediately after Christmas.

What this phase highlighted was that Boxing Week needs to be planned as its own retail phase, not treated as a leftover extension of earlier holiday campaigns. Across accounts, the stronger approach was to keep visibility intentional and treat the period as a distinct moment with its own shopper expectations. In one case, that meant maintaining momentum into the post-holiday window. In another, it highlighted the importance of shaping the promotion and messaging around a broader sense of value. By Boxing Week, the question was no longer just whether a discount existed. It was whether the overall shopping experience still felt worth exploring.

The key takeaway from Q4 of 2025 is that holiday performance is not driven by promotions alone. It is shaped by how quickly strategy can adjust to changing shopper intent. The earlier that shift is recognized, the easier it becomes to match the right message, the right level of visibility, and the right offer to the moment that matters.